As the Labour Leadership election hots up it’s all getting rather confusing.
The Guardian led with ‘Return to politics of New Labour would put off voters – poll’. It also informed us that ‘Blairite stance would deter 72% of undecided voters’. It read ‘A survey for YouGov found that 72% of undecided voters said they would be less likely to vote Labour at the next election if the new leader adopts the New Labour philosophy advocated by the former prime minister this week as he was promoting his memoirs’. Well that’s done and dusted then, Ed’s the man and Dave’s done for surely? I mean after all, political polls proved to be remarkably successful in the last general election, with Cleggmania after the televised debates and a huge surge for the Lib-Dems in the polls resulting in them romping ahead resulting in them…. Losing 5 seats. But wait! Whilst browsing the web I’ve realised that the people who partook in that poll were wrong. Another guardian headline announced that ‘David Miliband is voters’ choice for Labour leader – says poll’. But Dave didn’t just edge this one, he powered home, as the article proclaimed that ‘It [the YouGov poll] found 47% of respondents who had a view believe the shadow foreign secretary is the most effective alternative to Cameron — a 28 point lead over his nearest rival, his brother Ed, who scored 19%. Ed Balls trailed on 13%, with Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham on 11% and 10% respectively.’ It struck me as odd that two sets of results, so polar opposites, could come out within days of each other.
Then it dawned on me. The first poll was commissioned by Ed, the second was commissioned by David. Now it begins to fit into place. Once you remove the spin and the headlines a very different story is told. In Ed’s poll, respondents were asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if the new leader were to pledge ‘not to move a millimetre from the New Labour approach followed by Tony Blair’. Unless you work in inches, you’ll know that a millimetre is a very small measurement, so even strong New Labour advocates may be open to the idea of the party shifting one millimetre along the political spectrum. Though it has some use, it’s not the most… informative of polls. A poll asked by an independent source whether respondents were in favour of the party moving to the left might be of more use, but then Ed may have not done as well so that simply will not do. It’s difficult to pick holes in David’s poll as respondents were simply asked who would make the best PM. However in his poll Diane Abbott came out as a better leader than Ed Miliband and the others among respondents…which is, ehem, odd.
